NFL Conference Championship Takeaways.
**Eagles vs. Commanders**
The Eagles scored seven rushing touchdowns: three by Saquon Barkley, one by rookie Will Shipley, and three by Jalen Hurts, who also threw for another touchdown. The Commanders' thrilling run to the heights of the NFC came to a halt in a dominating 55-23 victory for the Eagles. The Eagles entered the week as the favorites, but the upstart Commanders had garnered significant media attention for their spirited journey from last in the division, highlighted by two recent upsets in playoff history.
Most of the football world wanted to witness the rise of Jayden Daniels, as local media reported that the first practice with him and the Commanders drew a lot of attention. Meanwhile, the Eagles flew under the radar heading into this matchup, dominating from start to finish. Saquon Barkley broke the game open with a 60-yard run on the first play from scrimmage, leading the Eagles to a wire-to-wire victory.
The Commanders managed to score a 36-yard touchdown by Terry McLaurin in the second quarter, but they couldn't generate enough positive plays to keep pace with the Eagles. Turnovers played a crucial role in the Commanders' run to the conference championship carying a +4 turnover differential through two games But against the Eagles, the Commanders gave away at least three turnovers due to forced fumbles in this game.
Penalties also extended drives for the Eagles, with pass interference against cornerback Marshon Lattimore in the first half and a late hit out of bounds by Mike Sainristil on Saquon Barkley. The Commanders' defense generated a lot of pressure and sacked Jalen Hurts twice, but the Eagles still prevailed. Hurts finished 20 of 28 for 246 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and a 110.1 passer rating, adding 16 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. A.J. Brown came alive, catching six passes for 96 receiving yards and a touchdown, while Dallas Goedert had seven catches for 85 yards.
Coming into the playoffs, there were question marks surrounding Hurts' play after a decline leading into the postseason, but his deep ball looked reminiscent of his near MVP-level performance from two years ago. Saquon Barkley rushed 15 times for 118 yards and three touchdowns, exceeding expectations by +72 yards. At no point during these playoffs did the Eagles look like the best team in the NFC, yet they managed to distance themselves from the competition, making the Super Bowl for the second time in as many seasons. Critics had questioned whether Hurts could function as a professional passer after taking over for Carson Wentz, but now he has led the Eagles to two Super Bowl appearances in three seasons.
The Commanders' magical run came to an end in the conference championship, much like many had anticipated. Turnovers plagued the Commanders in this game, and their lack of talent became evident. The Eagles sacked Daniels three times, and while the Commanders converted four of six fourth downs—a necessity indicated by their 7 of 17 success on third downs—it highlighted an offense in distress. Daniels finished 29 of 48 for 255 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and six carries for 48 rushing yards and a score. He also suffered his first set of sacks in this matchup against the Eagles. Zach Ertz was Daniels' primary target on late downs, totaling 11 catches for 104 yards, while McLaurin had three catches for 51 yards. The Commanders lost three fumbles, including by wide receiver Dyami Brown, running back Austin Ekeler, and kick returner Jeremy Nichols, contributing to a +23.6% turnover advantage for the Eagles.
The Commanders will look to build on this performance. Thanks to Daniels' rookie contract, the team projects to have over $87 million available for the draft and other acquisitions. Even with McLaurin, the team should push hard for a player like Tee Higgins. The Commanders need a stronger outside threat; while they received great contributions from players like Dyami and Noah Brown as well as Zaccheaus, the offense requires a star alongside McLaurin, who has always felt like a 1B from a stylistic standpoint. The defense also needs an elite pass rusher, potentially eyeing their old friend Chase Young.
The Eagles enter the conference final towering over the Commanders in both experience and talent, but that has never stopped Jayden Daniels. Regardless of the levels, pressure, and prestige, it’s just football. Daniels has played the game for years and has confidence from overcoming significant challenges to reach this position. The Eagles do have some talent concerns. Saquon is their best player, but Jalen Hurts must perform well for the team to win a championship, especially as he deals with a knee injury sustained in the game against the Rams. In the past month, Hurts has suffered a concussion, a finger injury, and now a knee issue. If he plays poorly, the Eagles’ defense will need to compensate for the performance of two quarterbacks, including their own.
Jayden Daniels enters this game having “already won,” defying the odds by leading his team to the playoffs and overcoming two road games as underdogs according to Vegas odds. The Commanders may choose to allow Saquon to run wild while trusting their offense to perform.
**Bills vs. Chiefs**
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills put on another classic performance in a game that swung back and forth. Ultimately, the Chiefs triumphed over the Bills 32-29, securing their third straight Super Bowl appearance in a rematch against the Philadelphia Eagles and moving one step closer to another championship.
In the closing moments, the Bills and quarterback Josh Allen watched as their last opportunity on offense slipped away. A desperate heave from Allen passed through the hands of tight end Dalton Kincaid and fell to the ground. The Bills' offense outgained Kansas City by the narrowest of margins, totaling 374 yards to the Chiefs' 368. However, the Bills were more successful on fourth down, converting 4 out of 6 attempts compared to the Chiefs' 1 for 1. Unfortunately for Buffalo, their two missed fourth-down plays came in the fourth quarter and proved crucial. Despite averaging 5.5 yards per play early in the fourth, the Bills failed to convert a fourth-and-one quarterback sneak. The Bills opted not to employ the "Tush Push" strategy and instead relied on Allen to drive the ball forward. While he had previously converted a goal earlier in the drive, they needed a stronger effort on that pivotal down, which led to the Chiefs' game-winning field goal. To defeat the Chiefs, who executed their game plan efficiently, the Bills needed some favorable breaks that simply didn't materialize.
Patrick Mahomes completed only two passes over 10 air yards, finishing 18 of 26 for 245 yards, one touchdown, with an EPA of 18.21 despite a lost sack fumble. He also rushed 11 times for 43 yards and two touchdowns. Xavier Worthy, whom the Bills traded rights to on draft night, came up big with six catches for 85 yards and a touchdown, while fellow rookie Keon Coleman, drafted by the Bills, had just one catch for 12 yards after a solid rookie season.
The Bills outperformed the Chiefs in explosive plays, with Allen completing two long passes, including a 34-yard touchdown to Mack Hollins, one of two touchdowns for Buffalo. Nonetheless, they fell short, converting only 4 out of 15 on third down. James Cook also made significant contributions on the ground with two touchdowns from 13 carries for 85 rushing yards. Allen finished the game with 22 completions on 34 attempts for 237 passing yards, two touchdowns, and a passer rating of 104.7.
Many sports fans like to compare football to basketball due to the similarities in the way both sports are played at the highest level. Winning in both requires teams to go on runs and maintain possession. The Chiefs opened the game with a 12-yard touchdown run by Kareem Hunt, concluding a 12-play, 90-yard drive for a 7-0 lead. The Bills responded with a field goal after punting on their first drive, and then took their first lead on a touchdown—a six-yard run from James Cook—yielding a 10-point run. However, Mahomes led the Chiefs to score 14 unanswered points in the second quarter, establishing a 21-10 lead. The Bills retaliated with a 13-point run that extended into the third quarter, gaining a 22-21 lead after two failed two-point conversion attempts.
Both teams traded touchdowns, with the Chiefs successfully converting a two-point attempt. On the Chiefs' final drive, Mahomes connected with running back Samaje Perine on a short pass, who then picked up 17 yards on a critical third-and-nine play to seal the win for Kansas City.
The Chiefs will now face the Eagles in a rematch of their Super Bowl from two seasons ago, which the Chiefs won. Meanwhile, the Bills must return to the drawing board. Josh Allen, though talented, will need to find ways to improve his game against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs' experienced defense. The Bills' offense lacked a primary target on the field, and management may look to strengthen the wide receiver position now that salary cap space has opened up from the Stefon Diggs transaction. Against such a tough defense, Allen needed a reliable go-to player to complement his skills, as his "do-it-myself" mentality was insufficient to secure the win. According to ESPN analytics, Mack Hollins was ranked as the team’s best receiver but finished the season overall underwhelming.
The Bills and Josh Allen enjoyed success during the regular season, defeating Mahomes and the Chiefs, handing them their only meaningful loss of the year. However, over the past two seasons, the Bills have managed to best the Chiefs in regular-season matchups but have fallen short when it matters most. This recurring outcome adds another layer to the narrative surrounding this matchup. Josh Allen has demonstrated the ability to win significant games during the Bills' five-year run of AFC Championship appearances and six consecutive playoff trips, but the lingering question remains: Can he ever overcome Patrick Mahomes and the mystique of the Chiefs?
