NFL Conference Previews.
**Bills vs. Chiefs**
In the art of storytelling or screenwriting, every hero needs a strong villain or an opposing force that creates the struggle, forcing the hero to grow and become “emotionally compelling.” When we strip away the pads, stats, and hits, the NFL and its season exist as a story of battle, failure, and evolution. The hero’s journey culminates in a showdown between two opposing forces. Regardless of who you're rooting for, Josh Allen will face his greatest rival, the only man standing between him and the Bills when Buffalo takes on Kansas City in the Conference Finals.
Since both became starting quarterbacks in 2018, the Chiefs have transformed from a charming underdog into what many football fans view as an “evil empire.” After a thrilling season, the Chiefs secured the number one seed with a 16-1 record and earned a bye week. They then defeated the talented but ultimately outmatched Texans to reach the AFC Championship Game. No team in recent memory has approached a Super Bowl with such an “easier” path or seemed to be on autopilot like the Chiefs.
The Bills faced the Broncos before advancing to battle the Ravens, overcoming Lamar Jackson in a late-game showdown. Now we enter the championship face-off, with these two teams having delivered memorable clashes in recent history. Most notably, their historic playoff bout saw the Chiefs and Bills exchange a staggering 25 points in just two minutes, culminating in a 42-36 overtime victory for Kansas City. They also squared off last year in the divisional rounds, where the Chiefs triumphed once more.
Both offenses and quarterbacks have undergone changes since these memorable matchups. Both Allen and Mahomes have had their offenses revamped, and now these once-feared powerhouses have slowed down. Neither quarterback ranks in the top ten for intended air yards per pass or average yards to the sticks, among other metrics. While Mahomes has dropped to near the bottom of the league in air yards per attempt, Allen holds the top spot for the most deep passes attempted. Nonetheless, both offenses have shifted toward efficiency, with both teams ranking in the top ten in success rate and completed air yards per attempt.
Despite their focus on the passing game, Patrick Mahomes enters this game with a low success rate of 35.3% after his previous encounter with the Texans. Only Justin Herbert (34.2%) has had a worse playoff run. In contrast, Allen boasts a 54.3% success rate with an impressive 0.358 expected points added per play against formidable defenses like the Ravens and Broncos. The Bills have also leaned more heavily on their run game, with Allen and James Cook contributing significantly. Cook has achieved a 52.5% success rate and averages 93.5 yards per game, while Allen has a 72.2% success rate with two touchdowns.
The Chiefs' defense has performed effectively against the run, ranking 11th in EPA allowed. However, they allowed 149 total rushing yards to the Texans, with Joe Mixon gaining 88 yards and finishing with a 55.8% success rate. The Chiefs' pass rush sacked CJ Stroud eight times, but that performance remains an outlier, as the Chiefs struggled to generate consistent pressure throughout the season. Notably, no quarterback was sacked less than Josh Allen.
While the Chiefs' defense is renowned for its pass coverage, they ranked only 15th in dropback EPA for the season. CJ Stroud found success against them, throwing for 245 yards with 8.5 completed air yards per completion. Excluding the sacks, Stroud ended that game with a positive expected points added. The Bills' defense may not face much of a rushing attack from the Chiefs, but they struggled against the Ravens' two tight ends. Isaiah Likely achieved a perfect passer rating of 158.3, while Mark Andrews likely would have eclipsed 100 instead of finishing with 97.9 if he hadn't dropped a two-point conversion attempt.
The Bills could face their toughest test in terms of tight end coverage with Travis Kelce. Kelce boasts a 75% success rate, 117 receiving yards, a remarkable 87.5% catch rate, and 14.6 yards per target. The Bills defense permitted a 114.4 passer rating to Lamar Jackson, allowing 9.4 completed air yards but managed to pressure him on nearly 20% of his dropbacks. The Texans' talented pass rush pressured Mahomes on 32.3% of his dropbacks and registered three sacks. Can the Bills replicate this success?
Neither the Chiefs nor the Bills have identified a standout number one receiver. For opposing teams, whoever isn’t matched up against Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie likely will be successful. McDuffie surrendered 62 yards in coverage but forced a passer rating under 90. Ravens receiver Rashod Bateman found success against the Chiefs secondary, as did several Broncos players for at least a possession. If Mahomes decides to unleash his full potential, he might find a Buffalo secondary ready to allow substantial gains to players like Marquise Brown or DeAndre Hopkins on the outside. Both players were largely quiet thus far, with Travis Kelce carrying the load; however, either could step up.
The Bills must overcome the Chiefs this time; perhaps they’ve finally discovered the right formula for victory. Back to the story: According to John Truby...“It is only by competing for the same goal that the hero and the opponent are forced to come into direct conflict and to do so again and again throughout the story” - John Truby, The Anatomy of Story
**Commanders vs. Eagles**
If the NFL playoffs functioned like a March Madness bracket, the Commanders would have defied about 98% of predictions, as two upsets lie in the wake of the conference championship matchup. The Commanders have springboarded from a projected bottom team in the preseason to a fringe Super Bowl contender, with one major obstacle standing in their way: their division rival and two-seed, the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Commanders should enter this game with confidence, having achieved two notable upsets: a nail-biting win against Tampa and a stunning victory over the Detroit Lions. However, the Eagles may prove to be the toughest challenge for this rising team.
The most significant difference between the Commanders and the teams they've faced so far lies in the performance of Jayden Daniels. The rookie, in terms of status but not performance, has produced numbers rivaling the best in the game, boasting an adjusted expected points added (EPA) per play of 0.355. Only MVP candidates Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have performed better this postseason, with Daniels completing 75.4% of his passes and achieving a 51% success rate on 66 passing attempts—the second most in these playoffs. Additionally, Daniels has generated 5.8 yards per scramble, showcasing his athleticism all season.
The real difference has come from his playmakers, who have all stepped up in the past two games. The Commanders' three leading targets—Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, and Zach Ertz—have all registered success rates over 60%. Brown is averaging an impressive 17 yards per reception, while McLaurin averages 16 yards per catch this postseason. The Commanders' offense has played their best brand of football, exhibiting the ability to oscillate between explosive passing plays and an efficient run game. The team has a rushing success rate of 50%, and Brian Robinson just had a standout game, rushing for 77 yards on 15 carries and scoring two touchdowns.
Defensively, the Commanders have produced a -28.68 turnover EPA in just two games this season. However, the overall defense hasn’t exactly elevated its performance. Jared Goff threw for over 300 yards in the divisional round, while Baker Mayfield completed over 83% of his passes against them. The Commanders pressured Goff on 30% of his dropbacks, but if the turnovers don’t increase, they could struggle against the Eagles.
The Eagles’ passing game has also shown some rust, especially with Jalen Hurts coming off an injury. In his recent games, Philadelphia’s passing attack posted a -4.21 EPA with no touchdowns against the Rams and a 39.7% success rate for the postseason. Hurts has yet to throw for over 150 yards in either game and has faced significant pressure: 23% against the Packers and 33% in another game, leading to a total of 9 sacks. Top receiver A.J. Brown has gotten more attention for his recent off-field comments than for his on-field performance, managing just 3 catches for 24 yards and no touchdowns in two games. This is not how the Eagles envisioned getting Hurts back on track, though Hurts has rushed for 107 yards in those games.
Despite these struggles, Philadelphia has recently come out on top, narrowly escaping against the Rams. One key to their success has been Saquon Barkley, the 2,000-yard rusher who hasn't slowed down. He’s averaging 165 yards a game, with over 200 in his last outing and explosive plays of 70 and 60 yards. However, aside from those big plays, Barkley managed just 65 yards on 24 carries, averaging only 2.7 yards per rush. The Commanders’ defense was overwhelmed by Detroit’s running game, allowing 201 yards and three scores, with a total EPA of 16.75. Can the Commanders contain Barkley and force Hurts to win through the air? Although Hurts hasn’t thrown an interception yet, he has fumbled due to frigid temperatures.
On the defensive side, the Eagles, despite dealing with injuries, had no trouble against the Packers, but Matthew Stafford exposed their secondary, throwing for 324 yards and producing a 5.51 EPA. The secondary did perform well against Puka Nacua, holding him to a 66 passer rating when targeted. Terry McLaurin has had some difficulty with this new Eagles secondary, especially this season. The last time these two teams met, he broke free for a 32-yard touchdown as the Commanders rallied from a 13-point deficit to win.
The Eagles have the edge in experience, but with Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' offense firing on all cylinders, anything can happen. Hurts hasn't played well so far this postseason, but he could bounce back against a talented yet vulnerable Commanders secondary. Alternatively, the Eagles might continue to lean on the hot start of Saquon Barkley. The Commanders certainly won't feel intimidated coming off two of the largest playoff upsets in recent memory.
