NFL Free Agency Predictions.
NFL Free Agency doesn't officially start until March, and it doesn't take shape until some players are cut and other coveted players receive franchise tags. Until then, here’s a list of players projected to hit the market. This list includes a fair amount of star power—real game-changers—but not many. Further down, there are a few "over-the-hill" veterans who still have something to contribute, either to bridge an era or conclude one with a last piece.
The value of this list is evident in the quarterbacks, particularly former first-round picks, who can improve a roster and have spent time around the league. However, they still need to prove themselves as viable long-term options for teams looking to invest money in the position. Several lists have circulated since the season ended; this one represents my thoughts and opinions, though others may have different views on the players. Not all players who will enter the cycle have appeared at the top of the boards yet, as many NFL teams have yet to finalize their cuts, but we have a solid list. I’ll start with my top five players and work my way through the board, likely finishing at ten with some intriguing names.
1) **Sam Darnold, Quarterback, Minnesota Vikings**
The Vikings absorbed a cap hit in the range of $30 million by not extending their 36-year-old quarterback, Kirk Cousins, who was coming off an injury. Minnesota had signed star wide receiver Justin Jefferson to a long-term deal and could no longer afford the cap burden associated with Cousins. Instead, they opted to draft his replacement, selecting Michigan starter J.J. McCarthy 11th overall, while also signing high-end backup Sam Darnold. In typical football lore, the veteran gets hurt, and the inexperienced rookie takes over. In a twist, McCarthy got hurt in the preseason, and Darnold stepped in as the starter. Darnold's takeover was impressive, leading to a career year seven years after being drafted in the top five in 2017. He helped the Vikings achieve the 11th best offensive mark according to ESPN's FPI, outperforming Cousins' final year as a starter. Darnold racked up 4,319 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, and a 102.5 passer rating—numbers among the top in the league. This high-level performance propelled Darnold from being a clipboard holder to one of the top free-agent quarterbacks.
However, Darnold's entry into high-level free agency comes with caution. He’s not the first quarterback to revive a faltering career, as this renaissance has become increasingly common. Nonetheless, teams have expressed concerns over how Darnold ended the season with two dismal performances in both the regular season finale and the team's wildcard loss. He registered two of his five games with sub-100 passer ratings against the Lions and the Rams. Darnold is projected to secure a contract similar to the one Baker Mayfield received from the Buccaneers after his revival season—a three-year, $100 million deal with $50 million guaranteed. Teams will need to be confident in how Darnold will perform without Justin Jefferson being his first and second option, assuming the Vikings don't retain him. A team that stands out as a potential fit is the Las Vegas Raiders. Despite only two season wins, the Raiders will have an easier schedule coming off a rough season, which could benefit Darnold. He would be coached by Pete Carroll and have solid options to throw to, including Jacoby Meyers and tight end Brock Bowers.
2) **Tee Higgins, Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals**
As a second-round pick in 2020, the Bengals did not possess a fifth-year option on Tee Higgins. After failing to agree on an extension, they franchise-tagged Higgins to give their core of Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, and Joe Burrow one more shot together. Despite not making the playoffs and missing ten games over the past two seasons—including five this year—Higgins still produced numbers that rivaled some of the league's top players at his position. He ranked 11th in quarterback rating when targeted, 20th in contested catch rate, and 13th in expected points added (EPA), finishing the season with ten touchdowns and 911 receiving yards. Tee plays like a number one receiver but is often stuck in a second-option position, increasing the likelihood he’ll leave Cincinnati given his price tag and his potential to be a primary target. He should secure a contract worth around $30 million, and the Commanders have the cap space to make this deal happen. Rookie Jayden Daniels surprised the NFL with his performance, helping the Commanders climb from the bottom to the NFC Championship. The team will look to solidify its position as an NFC contender by adding proven threats to the outside. With Terry McLaurin already on the roster and a number of less threatening skill players underneath, Tee would immediately become the unquestioned number one threat on the outside.
**3) Ronnie Stanley, Tackle, Baltimore Ravens**
High-end left tackles rarely reach free agency in the prime of their careers, and this holds true for Stanley. He has been protecting the Ravens' passer since 2016, logging 1,089 snaps this season and earning a 79.9 pass rush protection grade, allowing only two sacks and 35 pressures. For a player responsible for protecting Lamar Jackson's blind side, the sack numbers can appear skewed due to Jackson's mobility. Some data attributes sacks to the quarterback, but with a player like Jackson who escapes pressure effectively, it's vital to isolate Stanley's pass-blocking performance. Stanley has not matched his All-Pro season from 2019, having played just seven games between the 2020 and 2021 seasons. However, this past season marked his first full season played since then. History shows that tackles can recover from injuries and continue to perform at a high level; examples include Terron Armstead, Trent Williams, and Tyron Smith. The Patriots have ample cap space and a need at tackle and pass protection, but a team like the Jaguars, with some room under the cap after trading away their tackle Greg Robinson, could also enter the running for Stanley.
**4) Trey Smith, Guard, Kansas City**
Trey Smith enters free agency as possibly the best overall offensive lineman available, although I prioritized the tackle position. Smith did not allow a sack over 1,115 snaps and only allowed 26 pressures in total. The Chiefs finished the year with one of the weakest run games in football, but that was not due to a lack of run blocking; PFF graded Smith as the 10th best blocking guard, and ESPN ranked him sixth in run block win rate. Even with limited cap space, the Chiefs may still be able to retain Smith’s services. The Chicago Bears spend the least amount of cap space on their offensive line, and former second-round pick Teven Jenkins will hit free agency this year. The Bears are likely to look to upgrade the position with Smith. The Bears' new head coach, Ben Johnson, comes from Detroit, where his team had one of the league's best offensive lines and prioritized establishing the run as a key offensive strategy. Although I won’t provide specific numbers, I expect Smith to approach the highest paid guard figures, similar to what the Eagles offered Landon Dickerson—four years at $84 million.
**5) Chris Godwin, Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers**
Three years ago, Godwin signed a three-year, $60 million deal with the Buccaneers to remain with the team that drafted him in the third round in 2017, and that deal proved to be a steal. When Godwin is on the field, he ranks among the best receivers in the league. He led the Buccaneers in EPA per target and yards per game, ranking 10th in the league in yards after catch per reception and sixth in passer rating when targeted. He also placed second on the team in catch rate over expected and yards per route run. With an 85.7 receiving grade, Godwin ranked 10th in the league. As he turns 29 years old, he has a better resume than Tee Higgins. In seven games, Godwin was on pace to surpass 1,000 yards for the fourth consecutive season before a foot injury ended his season. In 2022, Godwin tore his ACL ahead of Tampa's playoff run, effectively ending the Buccaneers' bid for back-to-back Super Bowls. The star receiver has played a full season just once in the past five years, and like Tee Higgins, his health remains a concern. The Buccaneers have no cap room, entering at -$3 million, and must cut players or restructure deals to become cap compliant. This situation opens the door for teams like the Commanders, the Chargers, or even the Bears to pursue Godwin. The Chargers clearly need a number one receiving threat, and they might also consider a move for Tee Higgins. The Chargers could make a push for Godwin, potentially offering him a deal similar to Jaylen Waddle's three-year, $84.75 million contract or a figure closer to Brandon Aiyuk's four-year, $120 million deal, which would bring him around $30 million per season.
