NFL Week 16 Previews
**Bills vs. Patriots**
Josh Allen’s quest for the MVP title hinges on a solid finish, and his next challenge starts with the Patriots. The Patriots' defense has improved and is now ranked 20th in Drop Back EPA after previously sitting at 31st for the season. This puts them ahead of teams like the Bills and Chargers. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez plays a key role in the Patriots' defense and successfully erased multiple scoring opportunities for the Cardinals last week. The Bills lack a true No. 1 receiver, which means Gonzalez could effectively cover Amari Cooper, who hasn’t made much of an impact since joining the Bills, or Christian Watson, who had a significant downfield play last week.
While pressuring Josh Allen usually forces him to recalibrate his game, the Patriots have one of the lowest pressure rates in the NFL at just 17.9%. This means that Allen will likely have the time he needs to target open receivers, especially since the Patriots’ secondary allows the fifth-worst passer rating in football. On the other side, rookie quarterback Drake Maye will be facing the Bills' defense for the first time in the last three weeks of the season. Maye ranks in the top 15 for EPA per dropback since Week 10—a solid performance for a rookie. However, the Bills' defense has shown vulnerability in the passing game, allowing nearly 70% completion and ranking 24th in success rate per dropback since Week 10, while giving up the fifth-best yards per completion.
No quarterback has approached the final stretch of the season as hot as Josh Allen, who is leading the league in EPA per play among quarterbacks and is second in EPA per dropback. The Patriots also struggle with run defense, yielding 4.4 yards per carry, which could allow James Cook to have a breakout game.
---
**Commanders vs. Eagles**
The Commanders have one last opportunity to show they can compete with a contending team when they face the Eagles for the final time this season. The Eagles can clinch the division with just one more win in any of their last three games, but they need this game if they hope to surpass the Lions at the top of the conference.
In their last meeting, the Eagles won 26-18, but the score does not reflect how much the Commanders were outclassed; the Eagles dominated the game, overcoming an early 10-6 lead by the Commanders. Initially, the Commanders' offense started strong; through Week 10, they ranked second in EPA per play and drop-back, and first in rushing EPA. However, they have since dropped to 15th in EPA per play and 17th in EPA per dropback, despite still boasting a top-four ranking in EPA per rush since Week 11. Whether it is rookie fatigue, elevated competition, or teams simply figuring out Cliff Kingsbury's system, the Commanders have struggled after starting the season 7-2, even suffering a loss to the Cowboys.
The Commanders' passing attack is fairly average, which includes receiver Terry McLaurin. Last week, they nearly squandered a two-touchdown lead against one of the NFC's weakest teams, the Saints. While the Commanders' defense holds opposing teams to under 200 yards passing per game, they also give up touchdowns on 5.8% of opponents' passing attempts, ranking sixth-worst in passer rating.
The Eagles come into this matchup strong against the pass, allowing a sub-90 passer rating and fewer than 200 passing yards per game. They also have the lowest yards per completion in football (9.9) and the fourth-lowest completion percentage (61.8). Although they faced some challenges against the Panthers, they have only allowed 30 passing plays of 20 yards or more, good for second-best in the league. Additionally, their rushing defense ranks second in EPA per rush against opposing teams.
The Eagles have shaken off any concerns about dysfunction; they currently rank third in EPA per play, tenth in dropback EPA, and third in rushing success rate. Coming off a dominating performance against the Steelers, where A.J. Brown picked up 110 receiving yards, the Commanders managed to limit him to 65 yards in their last encounter. In contrast, the Commanders' ranked rushing defense may have difficulty containing Saquon Barkley, who is looking to bounce back after a quiet outing with just 65 yards. The Commanders still possess the best scoring percentage in football, the second-best yards per play, and the third-best yards per drive, demonstrating that they can still compete with the Eagles.
**Rams vs. Jets**
The Rams enter Week 16 looking to build on their lead in the NFC West. Their offense comes into this game after two contrasting performances against the Bills and the 49ers: they scored 40 points against the Bills but managed just 12 against the 49ers. Over the last two weeks, the Rams have looked like two different teams, but with 14 days of rest, they face the Jets. Despite the recent slump, the Rams remain a strong offensive force, ranking in the top ten in EPA per dropback, dropback success rate, and total success rate. Matthew Stafford ranks eighth in big-time throw rate and hasn't thrown an interception in five games, with only seven on the season paired with 19 touchdowns.
Stafford’s top target, Puka Nacua, is nearing 1,000 yards in receiving, averaging 13.5 yards per catch and 3.55 yards per route run, generating a passer rating of 112.1. He will be a challenge for the Jets' declining defense, which ranks 29th in EPA per dropback. While the Jets had better statistics earlier in the season, turmoil has arisen as they enter another transitional phase. The Rams' secondary ranks 24th since Week 10, although Coby Durant is among the best corners in terms of completion percentage allowed. However, the Rams have struggled against the pass all season.
On the other side, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams put together a “vintage” performance against the Jaguars, achieving season highs in passer rating and QBR for Rodgers, and receiving yards for Adams. The Jets surged in the second half against the Jaguars and have ranked in the top five in EPA per drop in the final two-quarters of games since Week 8. This matchup between the Rams and the Jets could turn into a shootout between two veteran quarterbacks and some exceptional wide receiver talent. Garrett Wilson had a solid outing with 54 yards on just three receptions. Though the Jets' run game has not performed well this season, five players combined for 125 rushing yards, with Rodgers leading the way, rushing for 45 yards against the Jaguars.
---
**Lions vs. Bears**
The Lions and Bears meet in Week 16, both coming off losses but from different perspectives. The Lions offense scored 42 points, marking the fifth time they’ve reached 40 or more this season, and accumulated over 500 yards of offense, yet still lost for the second time in the year. Meanwhile, the Bears continue to navigate Caleb Williams' rookie season amid a change in play calling and uncoordinated decisions regarding skill position players, managing to score only 12 points while losing their eighth straight game. On a positive note, Williams improved in the second half against the Vikings by actually targeting receivers downfield, completing seven passes over five air yards, including a touchdown strike to Keenan Allen.
Despite a tough game against the Bills, the Lions still boast a top-ten defense, although they have one major flaw: they’ve allowed 50 completions of 20 yards or more, which is the third worst in the league. The Bears' offense, however, has struggled to throw deep; although Caleb thrived in such roles in college, his receivers have difficulty getting open. Williams' tendency to hold onto the ball has also resulted in sacks as downfield opportunities diminish.
The Lions generate pressure on quarterbacks on 25.4% of their rushes, allowing a sub-80 passer rating and leading the league with a 2.7% passing touchdown percentage. This game could be an opportunity for Caleb to improve his overall play—if he can successfully evade pressure and his receivers can get open, which is a big "if." The Bears' defense allowed 30 points to the Vikings, but part of that comes from the Bears' offense turning the ball over. Still, the Bears' defense held Sam Darnold to a 74 passer rating, picked him off once, sacked him twice, and generated 18 total pressures.
The Lions' offensive line, often regarded as one of the best in the league, surrendered 25 pressures to the Bills. Historically, Jared Goff struggles when pressured, despite his five-touchdown performance. The Bears' defense showed vulnerabilities, allowing big plays to Justin Jefferson and others, including Aaron Jones in the receiving game. The Bears might find it particularly challenging to contain Amon-Ra St. Brown, who exploded for 198 receiving yards against the Bills in Week 15. The Bears have shifted their focus to the offseason, but a win or a positive takeaway against one of the best teams in the conference could serve as motivation for this matchup.**Rams vs. Jets**
The Rams enter Week 16 looking to build on their lead in the NFC West. Their offense comes into this game after two contrasting performances against the Bills and the 49ers: they scored 40 points against the Bills but managed just 12 against the 49ers. Over the last two weeks, the Rams have looked like two different teams, but with 14 days of rest, they face the Jets. Despite the recent slump, the Rams remain a strong offensive force, ranking in the top ten in EPA per dropback, dropback success rate, and total success rate. Matthew Stafford ranks eighth in big-time throw rate and hasn't thrown an interception in five games, with only seven on the season paired with 19 touchdowns.
Stafford’s top target, Puka Nacua, is nearing 1,000 yards in receiving, averaging 13.5 yards per catch and 3.55 yards per route run, generating a passer rating of 112.1. He will be a challenge for the Jets' declining defense, which ranks 29th in EPA per dropback. While the Jets had better statistics earlier in the season, turmoil has arisen as they enter another transitional phase. The Rams' secondary ranks 24th since Week 10, although Coby Durant is among the best corners in terms of completion percentage allowed. However, the Rams have struggled against the pass all season.
On the other side, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams put together a “vintage” performance against the Jaguars, achieving season highs in passer rating and QBR for Rodgers, and receiving yards for Adams. The Jets surged in the second half against the Jaguars and have ranked in the top five in EPA per drop in the final two-quarters of games since Week 8. This matchup between the Rams and the Jets could turn into a shootout between two veteran quarterbacks and some exceptional wide receiver talent. Garrett Wilson had a solid outing with 54 yards on just three receptions. Though the Jets' run game has not performed well this season, five players combined for 125 rushing yards, with Rodgers leading the way, rushing for 45 yards against the Jaguars.
---
**Lions vs. Bears**
The Lions and Bears meet in Week 16, both coming off losses but from different perspectives. The Lions offense scored 42 points, marking the fifth time they’ve reached 40 or more this season, and accumulated over 500 yards of offense, yet still lost for the second time in the year. Meanwhile, the Bears continue to navigate Caleb Williams' rookie season amid a change in play calling and uncoordinated decisions regarding skill position players, managing to score only 12 points while losing their eighth straight game. On a positive note, Williams improved in the second half against the Vikings by actually targeting receivers downfield, completing seven passes over five air yards, including a touchdown strike to Keenan Allen.
Despite a tough game against the Bills, the Lions still boast a top-ten defense, although they have one major flaw: they’ve allowed 50 completions of 20 yards or more, which is the third worst in the league. The Bears' offense, however, has struggled to throw deep; although Caleb thrived in such roles in college, his receivers have difficulty getting open. Williams' tendency to hold onto the ball has also resulted in sacks as downfield opportunities diminish.
The Lions generate pressure on quarterbacks on 25.4% of their rushes, allowing a sub-80 passer rating and leading the league with a 2.7% passing touchdown percentage. This game could be an opportunity for Caleb to improve his overall play—if he can successfully evade pressure and his receivers can get open, which is a big "if." The Bears' defense allowed 30 points to the Vikings, but part of that comes from the Bears' offense turning the ball over. Still, the Bears' defense held Sam Darnold to a 74 passer rating, picked him off once, sacked him twice, and generated 18 total pressures.
The Lions' offensive line, often regarded as one of the best in the league, surrendered 25 pressures to the Bills. Historically, Jared Goff struggles when pressured, despite his five-touchdown performance. The Bears' defense showed vulnerabilities, allowing big plays to Justin Jefferson and others, including Aaron Jones in the receiving game. The Bears might find it particularly challenging to contain Amon-Ra St. Brown, who exploded for 198 receiving yards against the Bills in Week 15. The Bears have shifted their focus to the offseason, but a win or a positive takeaway against one of the best teams in the conference could serve as motivation for this matchup.**Rams vs. Jets**
The Rams enter Week 16 looking to build on their lead in the NFC West. Their offense comes into this game after two contrasting performances against the Bills and the 49ers: they scored 40 points against the Bills but managed just 12 against the 49ers. Over the last two weeks, the Rams have looked like two different teams, but with 14 days of rest, they face the Jets. Despite the recent slump, the Rams remain a strong offensive force, ranking in the top ten in EPA per dropback, dropback success rate, and total success rate. Matthew Stafford ranks eighth in big-time throw rate and hasn't thrown an interception in five games, with only seven on the season paired with 19 touchdowns.
Stafford’s top target, Puka Nacua, is nearing 1,000 yards in receiving, averaging 13.5 yards per catch and 3.55 yards per route run, generating a passer rating of 112.1. He will be a challenge for the Jets' declining defense, which ranks 29th in EPA per dropback. While the Jets had better statistics earlier in the season, turmoil has arisen as they enter another transitional phase. The Rams' secondary ranks 24th since Week 10, although Coby Durant is among the best corners in terms of completion percentage allowed. However, the Rams have struggled against the pass all season.
On the other side, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams put together a “vintage” performance against the Jaguars, achieving season highs in passer rating and QBR for Rodgers, and receiving yards for Adams. The Jets surged in the second half against the Jaguars and have ranked in the top five in EPA per drop in the final two-quarters of games since Week 8. This matchup between the Rams and the Jets could turn into a shootout between two veteran quarterbacks and some exceptional wide receiver talent. Garrett Wilson had a solid outing with 54 yards on just three receptions. Though the Jets' run game has not performed well this season, five players combined for 125 rushing yards, with Rodgers leading the way, rushing for 45 yards against the Jaguars.
---
**Lions vs. Bears**
The Lions and Bears meet in Week 16, both coming off losses but from different perspectives. The Lions offense scored 42 points, marking the fifth time they’ve reached 40 or more this season, and accumulated over 500 yards of offense, yet still lost for the second time in the year. Meanwhile, the Bears continue to navigate Caleb Williams' rookie season amid a change in play calling and uncoordinated decisions regarding skill position players, managing to score only 12 points while losing their eighth straight game. On a positive note, Williams improved in the second half against the Vikings by actually targeting receivers downfield, completing seven passes over five air yards, including a touchdown strike to Keenan Allen.
Despite a tough game against the Bills, the Lions still boast a top-ten defense, although they have one major flaw: they’ve allowed 50 completions of 20 yards or more, which is the third worst in the league. The Bears' offense, however, has struggled to throw deep; although Caleb thrived in such roles in college, his receivers have difficulty getting open. Williams' tendency to hold onto the ball has also resulted in sacks as downfield opportunities diminish.
The Lions generate pressure on quarterbacks on 25.4% of their rushes, allowing a sub-80 passer rating and leading the league with a 2.7% passing touchdown percentage. This game could be an opportunity for Caleb to improve his overall play—if he can successfully evade pressure and his receivers can get open, which is a big "if." The Bears' defense allowed 30 points to the Vikings, but part of that comes from the Bears' offense turning the ball over. Still, the Bears' defense held Sam Darnold to a 74 passer rating, picked him off once, sacked him twice, and generated 18 total pressures.
The Lions' offensive line, often regarded as one of the best in the league, surrendered 25 pressures to the Bills. Historically, Jared Goff struggles when pressured, despite his five-touchdown performance. The Bears' defense showed vulnerabilities, allowing big plays to Justin Jefferson and others, including Aaron Jones in the receiving game. The Bears might find it particularly challenging to contain Amon-Ra St. Brown, who exploded for 198 receiving yards against the Bills in Week 15. The Bears have shifted their focus to the offseason, but a win or a positive takeaway against one of the best teams in the conference could serve as motivation for this matchup.
### Seahawks vs. Vikings
Many football analysts project that the Week 18 matchup between the Rams and the Seahawks will determine the NFC West title, with both teams currently sitting at 8-6. However, the Seahawks will face a significant challenge against the Minnesota Vikings, who have won seven straight games—albeit against subpar competition. The Vikings haven't defeated a competitive team since beating the Packers in Week 1.
Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold, in a football world without Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, would likely have a stronger case for the MVP conversation. Darnold boasts a touchdown percentage of 6.8, which ranks among the top two quarterbacks in the league. He also sits in the top seven for yards per completion (12.3), yards per attempt, and completed air yards per attempt (5.1). While he is a gutsy thrower capable of challenging defenses, Darnold often faces considerable pressure and takes many sacks due to his playing style.
The Seahawks entered last week's game against the Packers as the best defense in terms of expected points added (EPA) since Week 10 but struggled against Jordan Love, who connected multiple times with receivers like Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. While those receivers are talented, they don't compare to the challenge that Seattle's secondary will face against Justin Jefferson.
The Seahawks' defensive line, although not star-studded, pressures quarterbacks about 25% of the time. With Darnold holding the ball longer and the Vikings having a "less talented" offensive line, the Seahawks could exploit weaknesses to put pressure on Darnold and prevent the Vikings from running away with the game.
Geno Smith, who faced struggles against the Packers' middle-ranked defense, will encounter the second-best defense in the league in the Vikings. After leaving Week 15's contest against the Packers with an injury, Smith will need to remain poised in the pocket while facing a Vikings defense that blitzes on 40% of dropbacks. His receivers must win in one-on-one coverage downfield; if they can do so, the Seahawks might see a big game from Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) and DK Metcalf, especially since the Vikings have allowed the most total receiving yards to wide receivers in the league, particularly through yards after catch (YAC), which the Seahawks excel at. The Vikings permit the third-lowest passer rating in the league and the fourth-lowest air yards per attempt. These teams appear evenly matched on paper, but the Vikings are undoubtedly seen as the more confident team heading into this matchup.
---
### Falcons vs. Giants
The Falcons' decision to draft Michael Penix Jr. immediately polarized opinions within the football community. While Penix possesses talent, the Falcons could have strengthened the roster by supporting newly signed Kirk Cousins by selecting a tackle or securing an edge rusher. Instead, they chose to take a risk on Penix, and now we will see the results of that choice.
Penix couldn't have asked for a better team to debut against than the Giants, who just suffered a brutal defeat against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' aerial attack. The Giants enter Week 15 ranked 31st in EPA per dropback and 28th in overall EPA per play since Week 10. Their defensive line, once one of the best in the league, has significantly decelerated, yet they’ve still generated over 100 pressures, producing a pressure rate of 23.4%.
The Falcons' offense struggled against the less-heralded Raiders' edge rush, as they ranked 23rd in pass-blocking efficiency according to PFF in Week 15. The Giants' pass rush could make Penix’s introduction a challenging experience. However, the Falcons' offense might see a breakout performance from Kyle Pitts, the tight end who has yet to consistently meet expectations. The Giants allowed a touchdown and a passer rating of 156.3 to Ravens tight end Mark Andrews, so Pitts could have a good game ahead. He caught all four of his targets for 28 yards against the Raiders.
Additionally, the Giants' secondary has been exposed to multiple big plays downfield. Penix had a solid deep ball in college, and wide receiver Drake London was able to break free from Raiders coverage to score the team's only touchdown on Monday. Both of the Falcons' leading receivers, Drake London and Darnell Mooney, have received deep catch grades of 96 or better, suggesting the Falcons' offense could explode.
Meanwhile, the Giants’ quarterback situation remains tense, with Drew Lock slated to take over the starting position once more. The Giants will witness firsthand what Michael Penix could have looked like had they selected him with the sixth pick. The Falcons’ passing defense ranks 22nd in dropback EPA since Week 9, but their pass rush has improved in effectiveness, accumulating over 100 pressures heading into Week 16.
---
### Texans vs. Chiefs
Any threat to the Texans' control of the AFC South was extinguished after their victory against the Dolphins on Sunday. However, Houston still has a long way to go to prove they’re legitimate contenders in the AFC, as their playoff journey begins against the team with the best record in the conference, the Chiefs. As Week 16 approaches, questions linger about Patrick Mahomes' health. If he is unable to play, we may see Carson Wentz take the field—two contrasting styles of quarterbacking.
The Chiefs' passing attack averages just 2.8 air yards per completion, the lowest in the league, and the offense relies heavily on yards after the catch, averaging 5.8 yards per reception. Despite this, the Chiefs still managed to maintain a top-ten offense. Last season, during Wentz's final campaign as a starter, he averaged around 7.9 intended air yards per attempt.Collins has gotten back on track since returning from injury, but the Texans haven’t had anyone else step up alongside him. The Texans’ secondary is performing well, having intercepted Tua three times—two of those by Derek Stingley on the outside. However, if Mahomes plays, he tends to be more conservative and may not give the Texans many opportunities for deep passes. As a result, the Texans won't suddenly piece together a consistent long game.
