NFL Week 17 Preview.
**Commanders vs. Falcons**
The NFC East has impacted the NFC South title race more than the teams in that division late in the season. The Falcons debuted Michael Penix Jr. as their starter against the Giants, and he performed sufficiently to beat one of football's weaker teams, finishing 18 of 27 for 202 yards and one unfortunate interception in a light introduction. Penix Jr. had Bijan Robinson to lean on; Robinson’s career year continued with 92 yards against the Giants, bringing his total scrimmage numbers to 1,616 yards and 11 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Falcons don’t always know how to utilize their talent, a trend that dates back to their time under Arthur Smith.
Penix Jr. will face a greater challenge against the Commanders, who allow fewer than 200 passing yards per game and pressure quarterbacks 23% of the time, with an 8.4% sack rate, placing them in the top five in the league. Advanced statistics reveal more concerning issues; the defense allows a touchdown on 5.6% of opposing throws, has one of the lowest interception totals this season, and allows a top 10 passer rating. The Commanders' defense did manage to pick off Kenny Pickett and held the Eagles to 4.0 yards per pass. The Falcons' defense has also looked good, generating more than 118 pressures on the season—something unthinkable at the start of the year. They picked off the Giants' Drew Lock two times for scores. The Falcons allow 6.9 yards per attempt, and since Week 12, they have ranked second in EPA per play. The Falcons won't face Lock but will contend with Jayden Daniels, who threw five touchdowns against the top defense in Philly. The Commanders rank fourth in EPA per dropback, third in scoring percentage, fifth in yards per attempt, sixth in yards per drive, sixth in red zone drive percentage, and fourth in points per drive. These two teams will battle it out, with the Commanders having their playoff spot secured, while the Falcons' season could depend on Michael Penix Jr.
**Packers vs. Vikings**
A heavy NFC North showdown awaits as the Packers face off against the Vikings. Minnesota is set on a Week 18 matchup against the Lions, which could determine the division and the conference. However, the Packers look to prove they are a serious test for the Vikings as both teams head into the playoff run. The Packers are recognized for their offense, led by Jordan Love, who averages 13 yards per completion, placing him third in the league. He boasts a 48.5% success rate and, since Week 10, he leads the league in EPA per dropback while completing nearly 70% of his passes. Josh Jacobs has played a vital role in the Packers' offense, ranking fourth in the league in rushing yards with 1,216. The Packers' defense has also performed well since Week 10, ranking first in EPA per dropback, third in EPA per play, and fifth by ESPN's FPI rating.
On the other hand, the Vikings have one of the top defenses in the league, tied for first in passer rating allowed, unchallenged in scoring percentage and points per drive, and leading in interceptions. However, their defense has some weaknesses; they surrender the third-most passing yards at 248 yards per game. The Vikings' offense revolves around Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson. Jefferson ranks second in the league in receiving yards, fourth in yards per route run, has a 59.3% contested catch rate, and is second in total EPA generated. He is expected to attract the attention of the Packers’ predominantly zone-based defense, coming off one of his best games of the season with 10 catches for 144 yards. Jordan Addison has also been impactful, catching a touchdown and five passes in his last outing, while TJ Hockenson is regaining form and could have a breakout game against a Packers team that allows over 10 yards per reception. Sam Darnold leads the league in deep passing yards, just above Jordan Love, and is the leader in yards per attempt on deep passes. With two quarterbacks capable of explosive plays, this matchup could turn into an entertaining shootout.
**Eagles vs. Cowboys**
The Eagles will play their second game without Jalen Hurts, who is dealing with a concussion. This means fans will again see Kenny Pickett running the offense against another division foe, the Cowboys. The Eagles aim to build momentum heading into the playoffs, and beating the Cowboys would significantly help them bounce back from their tough loss to Washington, which knocked the Cowboys out of playoff contention. While the Eagles have had the best pass defense for much of the season, the Cowboys have rebounded from a slow start, currently holding the second-best EPA per dropback defense in football. Due to improved health, alongside the return of Darin Bland and Micah Parsons, the Cowboys are playing like one of the league's top units. They forced two turnovers in their victory over the Buccaneers. The Cowboys boast the highest pressure rate in football at 30%.
Although the Eagles will miss a key offensive piece, the Cowboys will also be without CeeDee Lamb due to a shoulder injury, leaving Cooper Rush with Brandin Cooks, Kavontae Turpin, Jalen Tolbert, and tight end Jake Ferguson to face this formidable Eagles secondary. If any offense can withstand the loss of a quarterback, the Eagles have the skill positions to do so.
**Chargers vs. Patriots**
I envision the Chargers and Broncos like that SpongeBob episode where both SpongeBob and Patrick have escaped captivity from maniac Sandy, as both AFC West teams flee from the Bengals, who continue to attempt a late-season surge. Justin Herbert has played generally well this season, but he ranks 18th overall in EPA per play and 7th in EPA per play since Week 12, below Bryce Young, Mac Jones, and Aaron Rodgers. The Chargers' passing game has not consistently performed up to expectations. The Patriots' offense looked solid in stretches against the Bills. Although the Patriots have lost four straight games, Drake Maye produced one of his best performances with two touchdowns and 261 passing yards.
The Chargers' defense remains a top-ten unit, having feasted on some of the weaker teams in football like the Patriots. However, the Chargers do not generate significant pressure despite having high-profile players on their roster, meaning Drake Maye could have time in the pocket to make plays.
The Patriots' defense hasn’t excelled in any particular area, but they allow a passer rating of under 100 and just 212 passing yards per game. The Chargers have played more methodically under Jim Harbaugh, averaging more than six plays per drive. The Patriots could keep this game close, as the Chargers need every matchup to secure their playoff spot going forward.
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**Buccaneers vs. Panthers**
Typically, the Buccaneers can overcome Baker Mayfield and the offense’s turnover woes, but not against the Cowboys. Tampa’s playoff control came crashing down with a tragic Sunday night loss to Dallas. Speaking of tragic losses, the Cardinals suffered the same fate in their overtime loss to Bryce Young and the Panthers. Young has gained attention as the season comes to a close, leaping into the top 16 of passers in EPA per play, big-time throws, and CPoE. While his numbers aren't overwhelming, he is coming off his best game of the season: 17 completions on 26 attempts for 158 yards, two touchdowns, and a passing grade of 91.8 (PFF). He has also become quite adept at throwing passes of 15 yards or more.
Chuba Hubbard led a rushing attack for the Panthers that surpassed the 200-yard mark, rushing 25 times for 152 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winning points in Carolina’s 36-30 victory. The Bucs' defense allows around 104 rushing yards per game, one of the better marks in the league, ranking sixth in defensive EPA per rush play. In contrast, the Panthers have the worst run defense in football, allowing almost 200 yards per game, including 206 on the ground against Arizona.
The Buccaneers' ground game averages 0.006 EPA per rush and ranks 9th according to PFF, led by rookie Bucky Irving, who looks set to finish as the only rookie to reach 1,000 rushing yards. The Bucs average 5 yards per carry. In the passing game, Baker Mayfield completes 70% of his passes, but his propensity for throwing interceptions has been highlighted, as he now has 15 picks, resulting in a -4 turnover differential for the Bucs. Tampa cannot afford to play carelessly against a Panthers team looking for an upset this late in the season. The Bucs' defense ranks 21st overall according to PFF, making it one of the weaker units in the league. The Bucs generate pressure on the quarterback at a decent rate of 22.7%, but they have an interception rate of just 1.3% and allow the second-most passing yards per game. If the Bucs can’t take advantage of Bryce Young and let him control the game, Tampa’s playoff odds could take a significant hit.
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**Broncos vs. Bengals**
Possibly the biggest game coming in the final two weeks of the season, the Bengals have won three straight games to emerge from the depths of playoff contention and set up a season-defining clash against the Broncos. The Bengals’ passing offense has defined their season; Joe Burrow leads the league with 4,229 passing yards, along with 39 touchdowns and a nearly 70% completion percentage. Ja'Marr Chase is eyeing the triple crown, leading in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and receptions. While these stats are noteworthy, the Bengals have blown multiple leads, leaving them in catch-up mode late in the season.
Ja'Marr Chase should face a lot of coverage from Patrick Surtain II, who has allowed a passer rating of 52.2 and just 30 completions all season. The two stars will match up as former SEC rivals from LSU and Alabama. If Surtain succeeds in neutralizing Chase, look for Tee Higgins, who has come on strong in recent weeks, to take advantage of the Broncos' secondary.
The Broncos remain less defined on offense, although Bo Nix has emerged as a notable candidate for Rookie of the Year, showing promise with eight touchdowns and five interceptions (three in one game). He has crossed the 100 passer rating mark in his last four games. If the Bengals have any letdown this season, their defense stands out; they still hold opponents to a passer rating just above 90 (91.4). However, the Bengals give up touchdowns on 5.1% of passing attempts, meaning when they do allow passes, they often surrender scores.
