NFL Week 18 Previews.
**NFL Playoff Preview**
The Broncos will look to close their playoff run with a victory as they face a Chiefs team resting most of their starters. The Ravens have a matchup with the Browns, with Baltimore aiming to wrap up the division and secure the third seed in the conference. The Patriots could clinch the number one seed with a win over the Bills, but a loss to a Bills team with nothing to gain could be disastrous for head coach Jerod Mayo, whose position has come under fire.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears have lost 11 games in a row, and there are no changes to the head coach or offensive coordinator. Caleb Williams' time to throw has mitigated their woes, and the Bears will face the Packers, who still have a chance to finish higher than the seventh seed. The Dolphins have dealt with injuries all season, and Tua’s status as the starter remains in question as the team prepares for Tyler Huntley to start in a must-win game against the Jets. The Dolphins are next in line if the Broncos fall out of the final Wild Card spot, aiming for a turnaround similar to what the Rams achieved or better.
The Jets have watched their preseason hopes fade as the title slips away, and the team enters another crossroads this offseason. Crushing playoff hopes could prove a major morale booster moving forward.
**Lions vs. Vikings**
The matchup between the Lions and Vikings might be the heavyweight event of the season, featuring two equally matched teams both playing their best football with so much on the line. These division rivals met back in Week 6 when Detroit handed Minnesota its first loss of the season. The Vikings come into this game on a nine-game win streak, tied for the second longest in the league this season, only behind Detroit’s eleven-game win streak.
Since their last matchup, the Vikings have outclassed Detroit in many areas, particularly on defense, ranking second in EPA per play and third in EPA per dropback. The Vikings managed to escape with a two-point victory after a shaky performance against Jordan Love last week. The Detroit defense started strong but has since dropped to 19th in EPA per play and 18th in EPA per dropback due to injuries. Their pass rush ranks 24th in pass rush win rate, and their secondary has been particularly vulnerable to explosive plays, giving up the second-most passing plays of 20 or more yards. The Lions allow 6.6 net yards per attempt and come in fifth in pressure rate at 25.7%, blitzing 33.3% of the time.
Detroit often plays man-to-man against Justin Jefferson, which has seen some success; he wins against man coverage 24.1% of the time. However, the Vikings have yet to play their best football. Sam Darnold has completed 60 deep passes this season, connecting on 68% of his attempts for a passer rating of 106.4 but has been prone to taking sacks. The Lions are capable of taking advantage of the Vikings' vulnerable offensive line.
On offense, the Lions remain a force, ranking second in EPA per play and first in EPA per dropback. Jared Goff has completed over 70% of his passes this season, thrown for 36 touchdowns, and averages 8.7 yards per attempt. He has played conservatively with just 10 interceptions this year. He’ll face a Vikings defense that is the best in the league at blitzing, ranks in the top five for pressure rate, and is number one in passer rating allowed.
The Vikings are also fourth in third-down conversion defense and second in points allowed per drive. Brian Flores’s defense does not rely on a primary pass rusher but operates as a cohesive unit. The Lions’ offensive line remains one of the best in football, ranked 12th in pass block win rate—though this is a slight drop-off.
The Lions’ run game has struggled since the loss of David Montgomery. As of Week 10, the team has a negative EPA per rush but ranks in the top five for success rate. Jahmyr Gibbs just had one of his best games, averaging 6.5 yards per carry against the 49ers, including a 30-yard touchdown run. If you ask me, the Vikings have the edge over the Lions due to their recent momentum.
**Titans vs. Texans**
During research for other previews, I came across an interesting stat: since Week 15, with Mason Rudolph as the starter, the Titans have generated the fifth-best success rate and seventh-best dropback success rate. The Texans have the fourth seed locked up and await their matchup with the second-place team in the AFC North. While Houston will likely rest their starters, they come in off a disappointing Christmas Day loss to the Chiefs. The Texans enter this final stretch as one of the worst offenses in the league, ranked 22nd overall.
Typically, teams want to improve as the season progresses, but the Texans have entered a slump. However, their pass rush and pass defense remain strong, as they rank number one in ESPN’s pass rush win rate.
**Bengals vs. Steelers**
Both the Bengals and Steelers have a lot on the line, but not much is in their control. The Steelers could ease off the throttle and concede the division to Baltimore, as the Ravens will face the Browns this weekend. The Bengals need to win to remain in the hunt for the final wild card spot, depending on how the Broncos perform. These two passing offenses are coming in on vastly different trajectories. The Bengals rank eighth in dropback EPA, while the Steelers sit at 25th in the same statistic since Week 13. The Steelers' once-explosive offense has fallen flat; the team lost George Pickens for a period, and although he returned for their most recent game on Christmas Day, he only managed 50 yards while needing 100 to reach 1,000 for the season.
Recently, the Bengals have performed better, currently ranking 21st in defensive dropback EPA, despite having given up some big plays to Bo Nix in the passing game, including a 30-yard touchdown pass and a 51-yard touchdown pass to Marvin Mims. Pickens excels in the long-range touchdown department, and if the Bengals don't shore up their defense, he could have a big game. The problem starts with Russell Wilson, who has struggled in recent weeks. Despite completing 72.5% of his passes, he's 26th in EPA per dropback. During the Steelers' win streak, he ranked 7th, indicating a significant drop-off in offensive production for the team.
On the other hand, Joe Burrow has stepped up his game lately, fueling MVP discussions. He delivered an impressive performance against the Broncos last week, while the Steelers' defense has struggled after getting thumped by Baltimore; as of Week 15, they ranked 30th in EPA per dropback and 29th in EPA per play. As a football team, it's crucial to have at least one aspect of your organization trending upward as you approach the postseason.
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**Rams vs. Seahawks**
The Rams pulled off the improbable for the second consecutive year. After starting the season with a disappointing three-game stretch below .500, they turned things around, finishing above .500, making the playoffs, and winning the NFC West. The Rams secured the division ahead of their Week 18 matchup against divisional foe Seahawks. Both teams could finish with identical records, but the Rams own the tiebreaker due to their historic season.
While the Rams have much to celebrate, their sunny entry into the playoffs is shadowed by some concerns. After scoring 44 points against the Bills, the offense began regressing almost immediately. Starting with just 12 points against the 49ers in Week 15, they've fallen to 25th in EPA per dropback, 20th in EPA per play, and managed just enough success to win their last five matchups. Matthew Stafford's completion percentages have been variable, ranging from a low of 53.1% to a high of 76.7%, with three games below 60%. He hasn't thrown for over 200 yards since the victory over the Bills and hasn't achieved passer ratings above 85. All offensive statistics have taken a downturn after their best performance of the season, and if Stafford doesn't elevate his play, their postseason run may end in the wild card round.
The Rams haven't locked in the third seed just yet; if they finish with the same record as the Buccaneers, Tampa would take the third seed, avoiding a matchup against the second best NFC North team. The Seahawks, on the other hand, don’t have much to play for outside of pride. Perhaps Geno Smith will make his final argument for an extension with the team; he has completed 70% of his passes and thrown for over 4,000 yards for the second time in his career with the Seahawks. However, he has nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns. Mike McDonald's first year with the Seahawks has been characterized by "highs and lows," and outside of the passing game, Seattle has had little success. The Rams have opted to rest their starters, and if they lose while the Buccaneers win, they’ll end up as the fourth seed, leading to a matchup with either the Vikings or the Lions.
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**Buccaneers vs. Saints**
The Buccaneers could be trending upward as the playoffs approach. While most teams outside of the top three—the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles—enter the playoffs as potential contenders, the Bucs have established themselves by beating both the Eagles and Lions, although they have lost to the Cowboys, Falcons, and 49ers.
The Buccaneers' offense currently ranks 4th in EPA per play and 2nd in success rate since Week 12. However, they have not yet secured a playoff spot. They are set to face the struggling Saints, who, after a strong start in Week 2, have seen their defense weakened by a significant number of injuries. The Saints have little left to play for, but the Bucs have always considered this matchup a heated rivalry.
With the Rams choosing to rest their starters, a win for the Buccaneers would not only secure the division title but also the third seed in the playoffs, allowing them to avoid facing the Lions or Vikings in the first round.
