AFC Divisional Round Preview.
**Summary:**(assisted By Grammarly)
1. **Bills vs. Ravens:**
- The Bills faced the Ravens in Week 4, suffering a significant 35-10 defeat.
- Josh Allen, the Bills' QB, was outperformed by the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, the reigning MVP.
- The Ravens rebounded from a 0-2 start to establish themselves as a top offense, while Derrick Henry dominated the Bills During The matchup.
- The Ravens Continue To excel in rushing, accumulating 299 yards against the Steelers, while the Bills' defense improved Against The Rush Since Week four but still Comes In Overshadowed by The Dangerous Ravens's Rush.
- Both quarterbacks, Allen and Jackson, can extend plays effectively Effectively Nullifying The Pressure Both defenses present.
- The Bills lack a consistent number-one receiver, with multiple leading the TEAM Receiving Yards throughout the season. The Ravens' receiving threats include tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews As The Team Projects To Lose Zay Flowers Another Week With His Knee Injury.
- The Ravens' defense has improved, limiting opponents well, while the Bills' James Cook had a solid performance against the Broncos but faces a tougher challenge against the Ravens in colder conditions.
2. **Chiefs vs. Texans:**
- In their previous matchup on Christmas Day, the Chiefs defeated the Texans 27-19.
- C.J. Stroud struggled, throwing two interceptions, and the Texans demonstrated weaknesses in their offensive capabilities.
- Houston's reliance on Nico Collins as a primary weapon became apparent after losing other key players, leading to challenges in running the ball effectively.
Bills vs. Ravens
The first matchup between the Bills and the Ravens took place in Week 4, marking a pivotal moment in the season for both teams. This game revealed a lot about each team's potential, as the Bills faced their first true contender and suffered a heavy defeat. Starting the year with a 3-0 record, the Bills appeared to be one of the best teams in the NFL and boasted one of the strongest offenses, powered by Josh Allen and a variety of pass catchers. However, the Ravens decisively defeated Buffalo 35-10, with Josh Allen, in his first year as an MVP front-runner, being outclassed by the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson.
The Ravens, who began the season at 0-2, overcame their early struggles and launched into a winning streak following this victory. They established themselves as one of the top offenses in football and set the tone for a thrilling matchup in the Divisional Round. During that game, the Bills were overwhelmed by Derrick Henry, who rushed for 199 yards, contributing to a total of 271 rushing yards allowed by the Bills.
One might have expected the Ravens' rushing offense to slow down as the season progressed, but that was not the case. They dominated on the ground again, racking up 299 rushing yards against the Steelers. Although the Bills' rushing defense significantly improved over their last five games—ranking in the top five for EPA per rush allowed—they still ranked 21st for EPA allowed per play.
The Ravens had their way with the Steelers' defense, pushing through seven to nine defenders throughout the game. After giving up a quick score against the Broncos, the Bills' defense regained control, limiting Denver to -0.122 EPA per play, 224 total yards, and only 2 of 9 on third downs.
The Ravens didn't require much from their passing game, but Lamar Jackson finished with an impressive line: 16 completions on 21 attempts for 175 yards, two touchdowns, and a passer rating of 132.0 against the Steelers. While the Bills' passing defense did not show significant improvement, they managed to get a sack and apply some pressure on Bo Nix. However, Jackson remains a more formidable challenge. His ability to extend plays and find openings, especially downfield, is nearly unmatched—though the Bills have their own weapon in quarterback Josh Allen.
Allen also has the skill to extend plays, and he showcased his talent against a top-ranked Broncos defense, completing 20 of 26 passes for 272 yards, with a total EPA of 18.69 and 0.71 EPA per attempt. Allen has proven to be one of the least pressured and least sacked quarterbacks in the league this season.
The Bills have navigated the season without a clear hierarchy among their pass catchers. Will they continue to rely on diversity instead of a dependable number one receiver? Over the course of 19 weeks (18 regular season games and one wild card game), the Bills have had nine different leading receivers. Most recently, Curtis Samuel recorded 68 receiving yards against the Broncos. The question remains: who will step up for the team against the Ravens? Baltimore still has its leading receiver, Zay Flowers, on the injury report. However, their strongest receiving threats come from tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews, who rank first and third in EPA per target respectively, with Rashod Bateman—who scored a touchdown on Wild Card Weekend—ranking second.
The Ravens' defense has shown significant improvement as they enter this matchup. They shut down the Steelers' run game but allowed Russell Wilson to complete 20 of 29 passes for 270 yards, including an 87-yard reception to George Pickens and a 36-yard touchdown. Meanwhile, James Cook came off a solid performance against the Broncos with 23 carries for 120 yards. Can he replicate that success in the cold against the Ravens?
This time, the Ravens will be playing in Buffalo, and despite Lamar Jackson's Florida roots, both he and the Ravens have demonstrated their ability to perform well in colder conditions. Josh Allen has yet to advance past the Divisional Round After the Bills 2020 run, while Lamar Jackson has reached that stage just once last season before losing to the Chiefs.
**Chiefs vs. Texans**
The film from the last time the Chiefs played the Texans poses some Sucesses For Houston But remains Tough to revisit, as the game highlighted many of the flaws and Limits that plague Houston's Houston and defense When FAcing A Master Of Craft Like Patrick Mahomes. The matchup on Christmas Day turned out to be more coal than a gift for fans, with the Chiefs trouncing the Texans 27-19. C.J. Stroud threw two interceptions along with two touchdowns, and after pulling within one point in the third quarter, the Texans lost Tank Dell and trailed until the end. The absence of viable offensive weapons became evident as Houston struggled to run the ball, with only Tank Dell averaging better than two yards per route.
Additionally, the Texans’ rushing attack took a hit during their Wild Card win. Instead of improving from their one-dimensional offense, the Texans relied heavily on star receiver Nico Collins, who recorded seven catches for 122 receiving yards and a touchdown. No other Texans receiver had a game better than 34 yards. Performances like this in the wildcard round helped revive Houston’s offensive credibility but did little to enhance their diversity in play. Stroud's passing game suffered from the lack of playmaking options. The Texans could attempt to lean more on their running game, but Joe Mixon, despite his skills, can't consistently maintain his rushing averages.
Multiple quality performances from players like John Metchie, who generated an 18.7 passer rating when targeted, and Dalton Schultz, who posted a sub-70 rating, were also noteworthy. The Chiefs previously shut down Collins, so the Texans will need to step up their game.
**The Texans Offense**
C.J. Stroud has been forced to make something out of nothing. He went 22 for 33 passing with a 44% success rate against a tough Chargers defense. The Texans continue to struggle with pressure, surrendering a total of 13 pressures at a 33% pressure rate, which kept the game close for the Chargers. The Chiefs also pressured Stroud on 35% of his dropbacks during their Christmas Day matchup.
While the Texans' defense managed to intercept Justin Herbert four times—generating -20.50 EPA—they cannot expect the same level of efficiency against Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has thrown playoff interceptions, but he has also recorded 41 touchdowns, with a 1.2 interception rate and a 52.5% success rate. Mahomes has been effective in resisting pressure and has struggled with deep-targeted passes, which may make him less susceptible to turnovers compared to Herbert.
When these two teams met on Christmas, the Texans' defense allowed 185 yards after the catch, in contrast to 1.8 completed air yards. They also gave up 120 yards after the catch to the Chargers, including a significant 86-yard touchdown, demonstrating their ongoing struggle to contain runners after receptions. The Chiefs finished third in total yards after the catch with 2368 yards. Travis Kelce remains the Chiefs' top receiving threat, but the Chiefs utilize a more "socialist" style in their passing game, with DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, and Justin Watson all playing significant roles.
The Texans have the talent to match the Chiefs in coverage, but their vaunted pass rush must improve not only in reaching Mahomes but also in containing him. Mahomes rushed for a touchdown and picked up a big 15-yard gain in their last matchup.
The Texans set a record with -0.58 EPA per play allowed, but they’ll need to improve their tackling. The Chiefs finished at the top in both blitz and pressure rates. While this doesn’t always translate to sacks, most quarterbacks—including C.J. Stroud—show a mixed performance against the blitz. His offensive line remains unchanged, so Stroud will need to maintain his level of play. Both the Texans and Chiefs played on short rest on Christmas Day, with the Chiefs ultimately securing the victory. Falling behind in games doesn’t diminish the Chiefs’ odds, as Mahomes leads the league in comeback wins.
