NFC Division Preview
**Rams vs. Eagles:** summary
- The Eagles are favored in the Wild Card matchup against the Rams.
- Jalen Hurts' recent performance was underwhelming, despite a passer rating of 111.7 and two touchdowns.
- The Eagles' offensive line struggled, allowing a 33.3% pressure rate against Hurts.
- The Rams' defense, with nine sacks against the Vikings, poses a challenge to Hurts.
- The Eagles' receiving corps, led by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, will face a stronger Rams secondary.
- Saquon Barkley is a key offensive player for the Eagles.
- The Eagles' defense will need to improve against Matthew Stafford and the Rams' passing game.
**Commanders vs. Lions:**
- The Lions face the Commanders, who upset the Buccaneers to advance.
- Commanders' quarterback Jayden Daniels has made a name for himself with strong performances.
- Lions' defense struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Josh Allen previously.
- They have a strong pressure rate but a low sack rate, which could be problematic against Daniels.
- The Lions' defense has been vulnerable to deep passes, making Daniels a significant threat.
- Key matchups include Daniels to Terry McLaurin and the potential involvement of tight end Zach Ertz.
**Rams vs. Eagles**
The Eagles come into this Wild Card matchup favored over the Rams in the divisional round. However, I don't expect this game to be as straightforward as it seems. In the Wild Card Round, the Eagles’ passing offense did not perform at the level expected of a contending playoff team. Jalen Hurts recorded a passer rating of 111.7 with two touchdowns, but he generated only 1.81 expected points and 2.9 completed air yards per attempt. Despite good field position, momentum-swinging turnovers, and the noisy final box score, Hurts did not play his best game.
After sitting out three games due to a concussion, Hurts showed some signs of rust. This game should have ended in a blowout for the Eagles, especially given the strong advantage their defense provided. Hurts completed six straight passes at one point but also threw seven incompletions. The Eagles' offensive line also performed poorly, particularly on the right side with Lane Johnson and Mekhi Becton. Although the Eagles entered with a highly ranked offensive line, they allowed a 33.3% pressure rate, with the Packers’ pass rush hitting Hurts a few times. Johnson had allowed only one hit and ten pressures all season, but the Eagles' overall score was buoyed by strong performances from Jordan Mailata.
While the Eagles’ offensive line ranks higher than the Vikings', they will face a significant challenge against the young Rams' defensive front, which registered nine sacks and pressured Sam Darnold 42 times. While those numbers may not be replicated against the Eagles, the Rams can still apply pressure, potentially causing Hurts to have a difficult day.
The threat posed by the Vikings' receiving corps is notable, but the Eagles will face a more dynamic challenge with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert. Hurts holds the ball similarly to Darnold, but he is much more agile. After a disappointing game, A.J. Brown is likely to bounce back from his one-catch, ten-yard performance. The Rams' secondary gave up a touchdown on a 26-yard catch but primarily handled the Vikings well. The Eagles' offense runs through Saquon Barkley, who is coming off his best playoff performance. Can he exceed his 119-yard output and break through opposing defenses?
Eagles' receivers can excel in both finesse and power games. How will the Eagles fare against Matthew Stafford? Stafford shook off his rust and capitalized on the Vikings' blitz. With or without time to throw, he tends to find ways to succeed. While the Eagles' defensive line picked up two sacks, they generally did not pressure Jordan Love effectively. The Eagles' defense surrendered 81 yards to Josh Jacobs on the ground, and Kyren Williams, coming off a 76-yard game, poses a similar threat. The Eagles’ secondary comes in a little banged up but will have to contend with Puka Nacua, who is looking for a big playoff game. The Eagles' celebrated secondary faced a relatively easy task against the Packers' receivers, but they will meet a much more capable force in Los Angeles, led by the experienced Matthew Stafford.
**Commanders vs. Lions**
The Lions have emerged from their dominant slumber to face an NFC race configured in ways they and most others didn’t expect. Many observers believed Dan Campbell’s team would meet the Vikings again this postseason, but the Commanders spoiled the party by upsetting the Buccaneers and claiming the lowest seed. The Lions will get their first look at the rising star, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Daniels has made a name for himself, showcasing his skills to a wide football audience as he led his franchise to its first victory since he was in elementary school. After accumulating 304 total yards against Tampa Bay, Daniels has evolved into a player considered on par with the likes of James Harden: “I’m not a system player; I am a system.” He has managed to make Kliff Kingsbury's offense work in ways that Kyler Murray was unable to fully unlock And The Results, One Of The best Offenses In football.
Against the Lions' defense, Daniels will present challenges similar to those the Lions faced with a player like Josh Allen. In Week 15, the Lions' defense was soundly exposed by Allen, who they struggled to contain. The Lions allowed 4.8 yards before contact and 9.5 yards per completion, giving up 143 yards after the catch and surrendering 48 points. While the Lions' defense gave up 244 passing yards and allowed passers a 61.1% completion percentage with an 82.0 passer rating, they entered this game facing some inconsistencies. They have one of the top five pressure rates but rank among the bottom five in sack rate. Failing to get to a quarterback like Daniels could lead to the Lions' downfall in this matchup.
The Lions have also struggled to defend deep passes, which means Daniels will be a significant threat. If the Lions play man defense, look for Daniels to connect with Terry McLaurin, who excelled against the Buccaneers in one-on-one situations. If they decide to shade a safety over McLaurin, tight end Zach Ertz may see increased involvement. The Lions' defense allowed the third-fewest receptions to tight ends this season, which could open the door for Dyami Brown to step up again.
McLaurin ranks in the top five in expected points added (EPA) per target, and he has formed one of the most potent deep target duos with Daniels.
The key question is whether they can match up with Jared Goff and his top target, Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown, an All-Pro wide receiver, also ranks in the top five in EPA per target this season. The Lions lead the league in scoring, with much of their production relying on St. Brown, who is known for his prowess against zone coverage. However, he will face a lot of man coverage against players like rookie Mike Sinistral. Veteran Commanders cornerback Marshon Lattimore struggled against the Buccaneers, allowing 4.42 yards per route run; if he doesn't bounce back, the Commanders may try to hide him in coverage, creating opportunities for their other weapons.
The Commanders finished in the bottom five in rushing yards allowed per attempt, giving up 77 yards to Bucky Irving. The Lions will welcome back starting running back David Montgomery from injury after his regular season ended with an MCL injury. The Lions' offense is expected to showcase Jahmyr Gibbs, though he might not be as involved in the passing game since the Commanders' coverage unit has allowed the fewest receiving yards to running backs.
To succeed, the Commanders will need a Herculean effort from Jayden Daniels, akin to Josh Allen's acclaimed performance in Week 14. Daniels can rise to the occasion, but he will also need his defense to generate an extra possession through a turnover.
