AFC Wild Card Preview.
**Chargers vs. Texans**
Three weeks ago, the Chargers faced the Broncos with their playoff future on the line. A loss could have knocked the Chargers further back, even with a weaker schedule in the following two weeks. Instead, the Chargers rallied to defeat the Broncos, propelling them on a three-game win streak and into the fifth seed in the playoffs—a fortuitous rise for this often hapless franchise.
Securing the fifth seed allowed the Chargers to avoid the top three teams in the conference and set up a game against the weakest of the AFC’s top four: the Texans. Once considered an upstart with firepower to rival the best teams in the conference, the Texans have won just one of their last four games and rank 18th overall on ESPN’s FPI ratings.
While the Texans’ defense remains strong—boasting one of the best passing defenses in the NFL, ranked number one in completion percentage allowed, number two in interception percentage, and top seven in yards per attempt allowed—their defense also allows a top-ten rate in passing touchdown percentage and yards per completion. This means that when they give up completions, they hit the opposing offense hard.
Justin Herbert has bounced back from his injury last season and is not the hair-raising big-play hunter he was in his first three seasons. He ranks among the top in the league for average depth of target. Although the Chargers do not have a star receiver, rookie Ladd McConkey has performed above expectations, racking up 1,149 yards in his rookie year. Quentin Johnston, after a rollercoaster sophomore season, had the best game of his career in Week 18 against the Raiders, with 13 catches for 186 yards. However, the Chargers finished in the top ten for drop rate. Ladd may see a lot of action against Derek Stingley Jr., the Texans' top cornerback, which could require Johnston and Josh Palmer to step up in their performance. The Chargers' offense comes in tenth in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play since Week 12, and few quarterbacks have protected the ball as well as Justin Herbert this season, with just three interceptions. The Texans’ defense ranks 21st in EPA per dropback.
The Houston offense, led by CJ Stroud, has struggled to find consistency, particularly after injuries struck. This offense is currently ranked 27th in EPA per play since Week 12. Generally, a team aims to play its best ball at this time of year, but the Texans managed to dominate the teams they needed to beat in one of the least competitive divisions in football. The Chargers' defense ranks 12th in EPA per play, and pressure has proven to be the Texans' worst nightmare, as they give up the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 27.2%. Fortunately, the Chargers have one of the lowest pressure rates in football. However, the Chargers haven’t faced the Texans in every game, and stars Kahlil Mack and Joey Bosa can still deliver powerful performances. The Texans' offensive line is considered one of the weakest in the league, but their pass rush has had more success this season, notching 149 pressures and 49 sacks. This game could very well come down to play in the trenches.
**Bills vs. Broncos**
This matchup between the Bills and the Broncos could be the highlight of Wild Card Weekend. Buffalo holds the edge as the two-seed, and while experience in NFL playoffs might not matter as much as in other sports, having the presumed MVP of the league facing a potential Rookie of the Year at quarterback seems to be a key difference.
Josh Allen, who didn’t play in Week 18, is one of the best quarterbacks in the game. Since Week 13, no quarterback has performed better than Allen—he ranks first in EPA per play at his position while averaging an impressive 10.4 air yards per throw. Although he had one of his most efficient seasons in terms of passer rating, his counting stats were lower. Allen will kick off his playoff run against one of the league's strongest defenses.
The Broncos' defense finished the year with 63 sacks and 195 total pressures, securing second place in pass rush win rate. They lead the league in defensive EPA, have the sixth-lowest passer rating allowed, and rank in the top five for touchdowns allowed through the air. Additionally, they are among the top three in red zone defense, making them a considerable challenge for most quarterbacks.
In Week 17, Joe Burrow demonstrated that it’s possible to overcome the Broncos’ defense by putting in a significant effort, needing nearly sixty dropbacks to accumulate 412 yards and a passer rating of 122. It remains to be seen whether the Broncos will take a similar approach against Josh Allen, as he tends to struggle when under excessive pressure.
The Bills might lean on James Cook, who amassed 16 rushing touchdowns this season but averaged less than 65 rushing yards per game. While the Bills lack a clear number one receiver, either Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, or Mack Hollins will need to step up—whoever is not matched against Patrick Surtain Jr. Surtain, a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, allowed just a 61.1 passer rating when targeted. Under Surtain's leadership, the Broncos have allowed the lowest EPA per dropback of any team in the league.
Generally, Allen is the type of quarterback who can handle pressure and make plays on the move. Meanwhile, Bo Nix, the Broncos' quarterback, has had an impressive rookie season, throwing for 904 yards while on the move, according to Next Gen Stats. While he’s not primarily known for deep passing—with an average of -1.5 yards to the sticks—Nix recorded 51 passes of over 20 yards, placing him seventh in the NFL.
Nix will face one of the weaker defenses, as the Bills rank 21st in EPA per play and 29th in EPA per dropback. The Bills' defense will have their hands full against a Broncos offense that is coming in hot, ranked sixth in EPA per play and fifth in EPA per dropback.
Despite my instinct to trust Josh Allen, this matchup looks more evenly matched on paper.
**Ravens vs. Steelers**
The Steelers suffered a complete meltdown to finish the season, getting embarrassed by the Chiefs. As they enter the Wild Card Round against the Ravens, the team is running on fumes. Mike Tomlin has hitched his wagon to Russell Wilson, and now he’s reluctantly rolling him out there while the team struggles with the worst offense in the league. Since Week 14, the Steelers have dropped to 30th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. None of the familiar Russell Wilson strengths, like deep passing, have been effective after his initial four-game stint with the team—leading to a significant decline in performance.
The Ravens' defense has hovered around the bottom this season, allowing over 7.1 yards per play. However, since Week 14, the Ravens have made a notable improvement, ranking number one in EPA allowed per play and EPA per drop back. This is a big increase from the 0.032 EPA per drop back they allowed throughout the season.
The Steelers will need George Pickens to bounce back after being shut out in yardage against the Bengals. It wouldn’t be surprising if he starts to make an impact in this crucial matchup. There's also potential for Mike Tomlin to consider plugging in Justin Fields if the game gets off to a slow start. While neither quarterback has demonstrated significant improvement in their performance, Fields does offer greater athleticism.
Interestingly, the Steelers' defense has not looked any better, ranking 22nd in EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback and 20th in EPA per play since Week 14. This season, the Steelers' defense is middle-of-the-pack in terms of pressure rate and yards allowed per play. However, their passing defense still allows a sub-90 passer rating, which is crucial as they face Lamar Jackson, who leads the league with a passer rating of 119.6. The Steelers have performed reasonably well against the run, allowing just 4.1 yards per attempt.
On the other hand, the Ravens' offense has remained a force all season, leading the league in yards per attempt and with an EPA per dropback of 0.257. The Ravens should have Zay Flowers available, despite him being limited in practice due to a knee injury. The Ravens have the edge in confidence, having recently beaten the Steelers, while Pittsburgh is still trying to find its identity.
