NFC Playoff Preview

**Vikings vs. Rams**

As a fan, I hoped for a better conclusion than Sam Darnold's performance in Week 18. However, he had an impressive season, playing at near MVP level in his unexpected start for the Vikings. The team's head coach, Kevin O’Connell, initially planned for rookie JJ McCarthy to start over Darnold, but a knee injury sidelined McCarthy, allowing Darnold to take the reins. He had his best season as a professional, posting 4,319 passing yards, a passer rating of 102.5, and a total EPA of 76.7. Unfortunately, he is coming off his worst game in a Vikings uniform, where he appeared rattled in a tough loss to the Lions.

Now, Darnold will experience his first playoff game as a starter against the Rams. Matthew Stafford has extensive playoff experience and knows how to handle the pressures of postseason play. The Rams have participated in a playoff game in three of the past four seasons, and Stafford has started in the wildcard round each time. Currently, the Rams are riding a five-game winning streak, but Stafford's recent performances have dipped significantly, with a completion percentage of just 62%, a -6.7 CPOE, an average of 153 passing yards per game, and a EPA Per drop back 0.010.

The Rams will need more from Stafford as they face a Vikings defense that, despite some struggles, ranks second in EPA per play this season, boasts the highest blitz rate, and is fifth in pressure rate. The Vikings prefer to play man-to-man coverage and apply pressure on the quarterback. Their defensive stats are superior to those of the teams the Rams previously faced, such as the Cardinals, Jets, and 49ers, although the Rams have managed to defeat the Vikings once before.

The Vikings allowed the second-lowest passer rating in the league. Camren Bynum and Stefon Gilmore will be tasked with covering Puka Nacua, who, despite battling injuries, nearly reached 1,000 receiving yards. Nacua is particularly dangerous after the catch, accumulating over 500 yards in that category. Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp, now the Rams' number two receiver, may not be a Super Bowl MVP anymore, but he remains a significant threat. He is complemented by Demarcus Robinson and tight end Tyler Higbee, who have both returned from injury and can contribute to the passing game.

The Vikings’ defense has struggled in both run defense and in containing the Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs. While Rams’ Kyren Williams may not be as much of a receiving threat as Gibbs, he poses a tough challenge due to his lower center of gravity.

The Vikings' passing attack centers around Justin Jefferson, who ranks among the elite in the league, sitting second in receiving yards and leading in catches of over 20 yards. Jordan Addison, Jefferson's partner, had a breakout year, but the Vikings' receiver corps struggled against the Lions, in part due to Darnold's subpar performance.

T.J. Hockenson, the Vikings' tight end, is still on the lookout for a breakthrough game following his return from a serious knee injury. The Rams' defense is solid in pass rush, featuring Jared Verse, a leading candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year, who ranks 14th in pass rush win rate. Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner also provide a strong interior presence in pass rush, combining for 16.5 pressures.

Despite ranking 19th in EPA per dropback since Week 13, the Rams’ secondary, comprised of Kamren Curl, Cobie Durant, and Ahkello Witherspoon, will face a tough challenge against the Vikings' receiving corps. The Rams allow a passer rating below 100 but are sixth in touchdown percentage allowed.

The Vikings may have the edge in this Monday night matchup in terms of status, ratings, and overall record, and they have looked like the stronger team throughout most of the season. However, this matchup could go either way. The Rams have struggled at the end of the season, but we’ve seen their offensive potential, as demonstrated in their game against the Bills. If Sam Darnold appears rattled again in his pseudo-playoff matchup against the Lions, his inexperience could lead the Vikings to falter in this game.

**Packers vs. Eagles**

The Packers' quest to battle and possibly defeat the juggernaut second-seed Eagles in the Wild Card Round took a significant blow when the team lost receiver Christian Watson to a torn ACL against the Bears. The Packers' receiving corps operates almost like a collective, lacking a true number one receiver. However, they work together to keep the passing game functional. Watson, despite this, ranked as the team's top option for explosive plays, averaging 21.4 yards per catch this season. His absence will be felt as the Packers’ offense leans heavily on explosive plays in the passing game, ranking second in the league for deep pass play rate, deep pass yardage, and explosive play rate. Among the receivers, the Packers have recorded five total 100-yard games, with Watson contributing to two of those.

Jordan Love’s second season as the team's starter has proven successful. Critics may nitpick his completion percentage of 63.1%, which places him below players like Daniel Jones and Will Levis, but Love ranks in the top five in Quarterback Rating (QBR) and seventh in Expected Points Added (EPA) per drop-back. The Packers may look to rely more on the run game, as running back Josh Jacobs registered 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Regardless, the Packers must find ways to keep drives alive; they currently convert less than 40% of their third downs and average 2.50 points per drive. Their offense tends to go feast or famine on most drives.

On the other hand, the Eagles' defense will challenge every aspect of the Packers' game. The Eagles' defense ranks third in third-down defense, third in passer rating allowed, third in EPA per drop-back defensively, and second in points allowed per drive. Despite registering 41 sacks, they come in the bottom five in pressure rate (17.9%). Most of the Eagles' sacks result from strong coverage, forcing quarterbacks to hold the ball for an average of 2.88 seconds. Additionally, their elongated motion may prove difficult to adjust during a game that requires quick throws. Philly’s linebackers, led by Zach Baun, make life tough over the middle of the field; according to NextGenStats, he has the fewest target EPA among linebackers (-25.7).

Eagles' quarterback Jalen Hurts missed the last two games of the season due to a concussion, but he’s cleared to play. The Eagles' passing game has had inconsistencies this season, but Hurts, along with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert, has shown they are capable of stepping up in big games. The Packers' pass defense allows a sub-90 passer rating, but the true threat of the Eagles' offensive attack starts with Saquon Barkley. Coming off an MVP-caliber season, Barkley has racked up 2,300 scrimmage yards. The Packers allow fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and rank sixth in run stop win rate, but pure statistics alone won’t suffice against the force that is Saquon Barkley.

Even after their shocking loss to the Bears, I remain confident that the Packers have the potential to defeat any team in the league on any given day. However, they must perform at their best, similar to what we've seen from them this season. The Eagles still have much to prove, as their passing game has looked shaky at times.

**Commanders vs. Buccaneers**

A Matchup of Two of the Most Prolific Offenses in Football

The playoff run looks shaky for the Buccaneers after they lost the season matchup with the Falcons and fell behind against the Saints. However, they rallied to secure their fourth straight NFC South title and clinched the third seed. In their second season with Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers' offense did not slow down despite losing offensive coordinator Dave Canales. Tampa Bay finished third in yards per drive, touchdowns per drive, and ranked fifth in EPA per back, while also coming in third in total passing yards.

Mayfield and the Buccaneers achieved these numbers despite frequent injuries, losing Mike Evans for a stretch and Chris Godwin for the season. This season, the Buccaneers had 13 players with at least five targets and 11 players who played more than 15% of snaps. Tampa boasts a well-rounded offense, led by Evans, who tallied another 1,000-yard season after leading the team in targets (110), receptions (74), receiving yards (1,004), and receiving touchdowns (11).

In addition to Evans, rookie running back Bucky Irving also racked up a 1,000-yard season and helped Tampa achieve one of the top three marks in explosive play rate for a running back, as well as the fifth-best success rate. The offensive line contributed significantly by allowing Tampa’s rushers an average of 2.5 yards before contact. The Buccaneers' offensive line is ranked in the top seven for both run blocking and pass protection, making this team a complete unit.

The main concern for Tampa’s offense revolves around Mayfield’s ability to protect the ball. While the team isn’t particularly high in turnover rate, Mayfield has thrown seven interceptions in the past six games, including one in each of his last two performances. The Buccaneers defense has struggled at times this season but has played some of its best football since Week 13. The Bucs rank number one in EPA per rush, number four in EPA per dropback, and in EPA per play. They will need every bit of this newly minted-defense to handle the Commanders' quarterback, Jayden Daniels.

Daniels finished his rookie season as the only quarterback to lead his team in both rushing and passing yards, with only Lamar Jackson rushing for more yards in that position. He also finished fourth in total QBR, EPA, and ESPN’s Run EPA for quarterbacks, leading the Commanders to the second-best scoring offense, scoring on 50% of their drives and ranking fourth in points per drive. Daniels averages 8.1 yards per scramble, has an 18.5% pressure rate, and forced 37 missed tackles—making him a force on the field.

Despite his abilities, Daniels has had some poor performances, including one against the Cowboys. In losses to Tampa and Philly, he finished with fewer than 200 passing yards, and in a loss to Pittsburgh, he had a sub-70 passer rating. The Commanders' pass catchers may not have the pedigree of teams like the Lions, Vikings, or Rams, but they are underrated, much like their leader, Terry McLaurin. McLaurin recorded yet another 1,000-yard receiving season and the Commanders have also seen surprise performances from players like Zach Ertz, who caught the game-winning touchdown against the Falcons, and Olamide Zaccheaus.

If the Buccaneers decide to lock in on McLaurin, one of the Commanders' peripheral players will need to step up. The Commanders’ defense has played decently against the pass, allowing a 61.9% completion percentage, fewer than 200 passing yards per game, and maintaining a sub-95 passer rating, which is the second-lowest dropback success rate since Week 13. They have also produced 43 sacks and a 22.6% pressure rate.

The Commanders' edge in this game—and in every game they’ve played—begins with Jayden Daniels. He has become a nearly single-handed difference-maker for the team. Although Daniels has performed well as a rookie, Mayfield and the Buccaneers have faced significant adversity throughout the season and have managed to stay the course. In this matchup, the Buccaneers have the edge.